The Rich Got $17 Trillion Richer

Despite the many negative headlines, 2012 was a good year for markets. Listed below is a rough snapshot of total returns in USD – most asset classes returned double-digits. 2012 was a year to look through pessimism – how did your PA do? I would estimate that Global Financial Wealth rose by $17,500,000,000,000 to $162 trillion (I ignore […]

How Many Euro Breakup Scenarios Are There?

In a short note at, I calculate that there are nearly a quadrillion different permutations for the 17-member eurozone to break up into various single currencies, with a “rump euro” remaining if k>0. What are your views? And is the euro really irreversible, or is that just one possibility out of 1,000,000,000,000,000? Table 1: Euro Fragmentation Calculations […]

RGE’s Arnab Das – Rupee Will Underperform, Not Bullish on it

In an interview with ET Now, Arnab Das , MD, Roubini Global Economics talks about how the Indian economy will grow this year with a special emphasis on the country’s investment cycle and rate cuts. Excerpts: ET Now: What are your views on the projected sub-7% growth and the correction in inflation? Is it as […]

The Euro in a Break-up Scenario

A Greek debt restructuring, so long in the making, is now mostly priced in and would likely upset FX markets only temporarily and in a limited manner. An exit from EMU would matter much more, not because Greece is an important economy but because there is no legal provision for leaving EMU and it would […]

A Taste for RMB in Africa…

While the focus at today’s South African reserve bank (SARB) meeting was on the central bank’s dovish tilt, Governor Marcus was also questioned on whether South Africa’s newfound BRICS cooperation extended to currency coordination with China – in other words, would or has South Africa joined the throng of countries considering to add RMB to […]

AUD – Too Strong for Its Own Good?

According to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the AUD has appreciated by 9% over the past 12 months, second only to the Swiss franc. The trend is posing new challenges for the economy, with Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens saying “the high exchange rate is exerting a powerful force for structural change.” The […]

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