The Fed’s Options

RGE’s Kevin Harris has a nice preview of the July FOMC meeting: in brief, FOMC members are locked and loaded, ready for a September hike, though they will refrain from committing to a move and do their best not to cause an overreaction across the yield curve, where too few hikes are priced in relative to the […]

California to Argentina: How Big a Nosedive?

The Great Contraction has exerted large negative effects on state and local government finances, as detailed by the Congressional Budget Office, prompting renewed concerns among the media and investors about the possibilities of bankruptcy and default. In fact, there have been few recent occurrences of municipal bond defaults, with state and local debt being extremely […]

A Durable Recession?

Steep declines in durable consumption and residential investment have preceded nine of the US’s past 11 recessions. Neither one is doing well, and policy makers should take heed. First, a word on durable consumption. Some of the purchases that people make on a daily or weekly basis are difficult to delay (groceries, for example), while […]