Food Inflation in India—The Government Has to Act and Not Hope

Inflation, especially food inflation, in India remains essentially a government monopoly. Surprised? What I mean is that high food inflation is the cause of faulty government policies that has a distortionary effect on prices. Given the elevated level of food prices in urban India, the common perception is that urban inflation is higher than rural […]

QE Does Not Drive Portfolio Flows Into India

Conventional wisdom has it that quantitative easing (QE) leads to deluge of capital flows into emerging market economies and are generally positive for risk-on assets. The focus of this piece is the impact of QE on Indian stock market. While the impact of QE1 was clearly positive for the Indian stock market, it is important […]

India Growth Story – A 9% Growth Miracle that Was Never Meant to Be

  We believe that expectation of India’s (a dirigisme economy) growth miracle (9% plus rate of growth) is quite far-fetched. We, link this to the failure of the institution of parliament and judiciary in India. As India’s electorates continues to come up with fractured mandate with every passing election, there are increasing instances of criminalization […]

India Is Likely to Move Out of Policy Logjam

The last few months of Pranab Mukherjee (India’s prime Presidential candidate now) being at the helm of India’s Ministry of Finance has been tumultuous, to say the least. Maybe, not as much for him but surely for the economy, as a whole. Not that the entire blame lies at his doors. The global economy continued […]

India: Taxing Time for Foreign Investors

Ignorance, they say, is bliss. But not for a country when the government ignores the ground realities while devising plans and policies. The recent union budget of India is a veritable test case of the above. Previously I have talked about how the budget over-estimated the revenue numbers and under estimated the expenditure numbers by […]

Financial Repression – Indian Style

As the Indian economy shows distinct signs of slowdown and with the politically and financially challenged government clearly on the back foot, 2012 has witnessed a series of announcements and actions that shows that financial repression is alive and kicking in India. Although the last quarter of the current financial year (FY2012) is yet to […]

Backdoor Fiscal Stimulus in India

A report by the Financial Times on January 18 indicates that the government of India is planning a fiscal stimulus to the extent of US$35 billion during FY2013, to jumpstart a lacklustre economy that’s slowing down alarmingly amidst growing negative perceptions about political logjams, policy paralysis and corruption. As per the report, “the government of […]

India and the U.S.: A Tale of Two Ineffective Monetary Policies

Monetary policy refers to the process by which a country’s central bank controls money supply, often through the manipulation of interest rates, with the aim of promoting economic growth and stability while maintaining relatively stable prices and low unemployment. Monetary policy is either expansionary (mainly by lowering interest rates to combat a recession or a […]