The amplified shock from Japan’s March 11 earthquake, then tsunami, then nuclear crisis has rippled through the supply chain of its emerging Asia (EM Asia) neighbors. Production shutdowns and weakened demand in Japan began to register in Asia’s trade channels in the weeks following the disaster. As the extent and duration of disruptions to production in Japan become more apparent, the severity of regional supply chain interruptions and the effects on EM Asia’s industrial production and export volumes and prices through 2011 can be better anticipated.
The emerging market powerhouse known as “Chindia” is becoming a focal point of global attention as China and India show themselves to be growth dynamos of the coming Asian Century. But examining these countries’ intrinsic differences, as we do in “‘Chindia’: Putting the Emerging Market Giants Into Perspective,” is more illustrative than listing their similarities—and the two countries are likely to be on a divergent path over the next five years in the areas of growth, economic policy and politics.
We’re pleased to announce the release of the September update to our 2010 Global Economic Outlook, available exclusively to clients. Since our July update, we have increased the probability we assign to a U.S. double dip to 40%, which prompted us to consider how such an eventuality might impact Asia.
In September, the IMF approved US$450 million of aid for Pakistan under the Emergency Natural Disaster Assistance program. Yet, the IMF has delayed the disbursement of the remaining US$5.2 billion tranche from the US$11 billion loan approved in 2008 until Pakistan meets the stipulated conditions.
In 2009 and the first half of 2010, low interest rates and an uncertain global outlook led to strong, volatile capital inflows into some of Asia’s most promising economies. Policymakers in these places—which include, among others, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia and India—have searched for the best ways to control the on/off switch, to prevent volatility from undermining their economic growth. We examine this trend in a recent analysis, available to RGE clients, which surveys the measures implemented in each of the countries noted above.
In this week’s note, we take a look at trends in global trade. The following is an updated excerpt from a recent RGE Analysis, “Trade Outlook Update: Multi-Speed Global Recovery to Restrain Flows,” available for clients at Roubini.com.
In this week’s note, we examine trends in international trade. The following content is drawn from a special report on trade in RGE’s newly released Q1 2010 update to our Global Economic Outlook. Clients can read the full report, which looks into factors that will drive trade flows in 2010, here: “Trade: Q1 2010 Outlook.”
This week, RGE tracked a series of events that revealed the Obama administration’s juggling act: an effort to maintain growth, tame the fiscal deficit and garner the congressional support needed to implement policy. Democrats’ loss of the Massachusetts Senate seat raised questions about President Obama’s ability to take forward reforms on financial regulation, fiscal austerity and health care. Though Obama’s response was prompt and decisive, with proposals for financial-sector reforms that surprised markets and plans to address the ballooning fiscal deficit, his waning political capital will stand in the way of achieving his fiscal, social and economic goals.
This week we look at a topic we’ve been following closely of late—the deterioration of sovereign balance sheets in several advanced economies and the looming threat of debt downgrades. Later this week, RGE will release to our clients a paper examining this issue in greater depth.
From India Today:
The first decade of the 21st century made short work of belying the widely held assumptions for the millennium celebrations a decade ago. First, the 9/11 attacks shook and ultimately shattered the so-called “unipolar” moment as the reaction of the United States failed to carry the day either on the battlefield or in the court of world opinion.