The last Datafolha poll indicated that presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff’s support reached 50% against 40% for her opponent Jose Serra, making her the most likely candidate to win. This is despite accusations of corruption against her and her team and negative reactions from her declarations about legalizing abortion in Brazil, among others. Eliminating blank or null votes, Rousseff obtains 56% of the valid votes against Serra’s 44%. Compared with the previous poll, Rousseff gained two points, the same amount that Serra lost.
Brazil’s Presidential Election—Runoff Scenario: Serra vs Rousseff
In RGE’s view, both candidates will most likely continue the current macroeconomic model to keep investors appeased. While Rousseff’s possible government would imply a larger government role in the economy, Serra is prone to be more austere on fiscal policy.
For more on the economic impact of the election read: LatAm Focus: Brazil’s Credit Growth Eases; Colombia’s Inflation Expectations Drop available exclusively to RGE Clients.
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